Beijing Guoan 2-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Beijing Guoan face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Workers' Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 August 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's home record at Workers' Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Beijing Guoan are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Beijing Guoan have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Tianjin Teda have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Beijing Guoan a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 65% and Tianjin Teda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 60% | Tianjin Teda 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.97 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.050 / defence 0.890 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.907 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.331. Data: 48 Beijing Guoan games / 48 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 20%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Tianjin Teda 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Tianjin Teda 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.97 / Tianjin Teda 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.050 / def 0.890 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.907 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.781 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Tianjin Teda xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 58% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Record (7 meetings): Beijing Guoan 4W | Draws 3 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.05) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.58
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.04
1.07
Tianjin Teda xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
35.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.07 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 27W 13D 8L from 48 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 18L across 48 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 17W 4D 3L from 24 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 8W 3D 13L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.44 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 27W 13D 8L in their last 48 games (1.96 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.29 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 5, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 67%, Tianjin Teda at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Beijing Guoan and 75% for Tianjin Teda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beijing Guoan's games and 75% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 75% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda finished level at 2-2 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.97 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.07 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.05 / defence 0.89 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 58% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 20%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 60%, Tianjin Teda 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.