Beijing Guoan 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Beijing Guoan take on Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Workers' Stadium to take on Beijing Guoan. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 10 May 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Beijing Guoan's home record at Workers' Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beijing Guoan 1.80 PPG, Tianjin Teda 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 56% versus Tianjin Teda 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 60% | Tianjin Teda 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.00 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.929 / defence 0.925 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.050 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.186. Data: 39 Beijing Guoan games / 38 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 27% | Draw 37% | Tianjin Teda 35%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Tianjin Teda 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 70% | Tianjin Teda 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 27% | Draw 37% | Tianjin Teda 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.00 / Tianjin Teda 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.929 / def 0.925 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.050 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Tianjin Teda xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 27% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Record (3 meetings): Beijing Guoan 2W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (0.93) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.66
37%
2.67
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.15
1.15
Tianjin Teda xG
3.66
27%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.15 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 26W 13D 16L from 55 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 23L across 55 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.65 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 13W 9D 5L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 13D 16L in their last 55 games (1.65 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.78 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
4
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-4 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 63%, Tianjin Teda 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Beijing Guoan) and 37% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 33%; Tianjin Teda in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 41% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 37% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Beijing Guoan and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.00 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.15 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 27% | Draw 37% | Tianjin Teda 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 60%, Tianjin Teda 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.65 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.