Beijing Guoan 3-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Workers' Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Workers' Stadium, Beijing Guoan have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Workers' Stadium.
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Beijing Guoan's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Beijing Guoan 0W, Sichuan Jiuniu 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 67% and Sichuan Jiuniu 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 63% | Sichuan Jiuniu 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.54 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.322 / defence 0.640 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.532 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.432. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Beijing Guoan's defence rating of 0.640 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Beijing Guoan games / 41 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 81% | Draw 14% | Sichuan Jiuniu 4%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.23 | Draw 7.14 | Sichuan Jiuniu 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (81%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 50% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 81% | Draw 14% | Sichuan Jiuniu 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 36% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.54 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.322 / def 0.640 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.532 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.49
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
36%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Beijing Guoan 3 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 81% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 4% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (2 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.32) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.53x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.49.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
81%
1.23
14%
6.90
4%
22.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.03
0.49
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.23
81%
Home win
6.90
14%
Draw
22.68
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
61%
1.63
8%
12.67
Win to Nil
50%
2.01
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.6 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.49 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 16W 8D 6L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 7W 8D 15L from 30 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.20 PPG from 15 outings (10W 3D 2L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 3W 4D 8L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 0.97 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 16W 8D 6L in their last 30 games (1.87 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 7W 8D 15L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.20 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 4-0 on 7 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
0
Draws
3
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 67%, Sichuan Jiuniu 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Beijing Guoan and 47% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sichuan Jiuniu in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beijing Guoan's games and 53% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.54 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.49 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.32 / defence 0.64 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.53 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 81% | Draw 14% | Sichuan Jiuniu 4%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 63%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.