Beijing Guoan 6-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 78%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Qingdao Jonoon at Workers' Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan at Workers' Stadium this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Workers' Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beijing Guoan 1.50 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Beijing Guoan, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 63% versus Qingdao Jonoon 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 56% | Qingdao Jonoon 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.88 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.358 / defence 0.816 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.803 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.892 / away 1.343. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Beijing Guoan games / 57 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 78% | Draw 13% | Qingdao Jonoon 9%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.28 | Draw 7.69 | Qingdao Jonoon 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 78% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Beijing Guoan 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 78% | Draw 13% | Qingdao Jonoon 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 55% | xG Beijing Guoan 2.88 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.358 / def 0.816 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.803 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.892 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (78%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.88
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Qingdao Jonoon xG
55%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Beijing Guoan 6 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 78% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 9% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (3 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.36) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
78%
1.28
13%
7.56
9%
11.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.76
0.88
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.56
13%
Draw
11.68
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
6%
17.80
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.88 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 28W 16D 13L from 57 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 31L across 57 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 17W 6D 5L from 28 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 2W 6D 20L across 28 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.07 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 28W 16D 13L in their last 57 games (1.75 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 14W 12D 31L in their last 57 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.04 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 7 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 64%, Qingdao Jonoon 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Beijing Guoan) and 36% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 36% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 36% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Qingdao Jonoon 6-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.88 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.88 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Jonoon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.36 / defence 0.82 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.80 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 78% | Draw 13% | Qingdao Jonoon 9%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 56%, Qingdao Jonoon 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.