Beijing Guoan 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye meet at Workers' Stadium in Super League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Beijing Guoan have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Henan Jianye's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Henan Jianye have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Beijing Guoan's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Beijing Guoan edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Jun 2024, ended Beijing Guoan 1–2 Henan Jianye — a Henan Jianye win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Beijing Guoan — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 63% versus Henan Jianye 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 58% | Henan Jianye 44%). Note also that Henan Jianye surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Beijing Guoan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 2.37 xG and Henan Jianye 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.559 / defence 0.791 | Henan Jianye attack 0.846 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.823 / away 1.272. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack rating of 1.559 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Beijing Guoan have a tight defence (rating 0.791), which is pulling Henan Jianye's projected output down. Data: built from Beijing Guoan's last 59 games and Henan Jianye's last 59.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 71% | Draw 18% | Henan Jianye 11%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.41 | Draw 5.64 | Henan Jianye 8.72. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (71%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Beijing Guoan's last 10 home games and Henan Jianye's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Beijing Guoan 50% (last 10 home games) | Henan Jianye 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 71% | Draw 18% | Henan Jianye 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Beijing Guoan 2.37 / Henan Jianye 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.559 / def 0.791 | Henan Jianye attack 0.846 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.823 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Henan Jianye xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye FAQs
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Beijing Guoan 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 71% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.56x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.85x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Beijing Guoan's last 59 games and Henan Jianye's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.64
11%
8.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.22
0.85
Henan Jianye xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.64
18%
Draw
8.72
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
1%
92.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 0.85 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Beijing Guoan have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 30W 16D 13L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Henan Jianye's form line: 18W 17D 24L from 59 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Henan Jianye.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Beijing Guoan have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 29 home games (18W 6D 5L).
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 8D 16L from their last 29 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Beijing Guoan (Home) vs Henan Jianye (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye Form FAQs
What form are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 30W 16D 13L in their last 59 games (1.80 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Henan Jianye away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.07 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won Henan Jianye 3-0 Beijing Guoan on 7 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beijing Guoan have won 5, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Henan Jianye 3-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 62%, Henan Jianye 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Beijing Guoan) and 48% (Henan Jianye). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beijing Guoan vs Henan Jianye Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Beijing Guoan's games and 52% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 48% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Beijing Guoan's recent matches and 52% of Henan Jianye's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Beijing Guoan and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 2.37 xG and Henan Jianye 0.85 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.56 / defence 0.79 against Henan Jianye attack 0.85 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 71% | Draw 18% | Henan Jianye 11%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 58%, Henan Jianye 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.