Beijing Guoan 0-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Workers' Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 16 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Workers' Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Workers' Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Beijing Guoan's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hangzhou Greentown's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Beijing Guoan 1W, Hangzhou Greentown 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 62% and Hangzhou Greentown 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beijing Guoan 55% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 3.12 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.255 / defence 0.849 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.934 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.838 / away 1.327. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 3.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hangzhou Greentown bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Beijing Guoan games / 53 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 78% | Draw 13% | Hangzhou Greentown 9%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.28 | Draw 7.69 | Hangzhou Greentown 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 4.17. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.17 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (3.12 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Hangzhou Greentown lead the H2H ledger, but Beijing Guoan carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 78% | Draw 13% | Hangzhou Greentown 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 62% | xG Beijing Guoan 3.12 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.255 / def 0.849 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.934 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.838 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.12
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hangzhou Greentown xG
62%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan 0 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 78% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 9% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (5 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 3W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.12. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (0.93x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 3-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
78%
1.28
13%
7.92
9%
10.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
3 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.12
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
4.17
1.05
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.92
13%
Draw
10.75
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
4%
22.67
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 3.12 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.05 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 4.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 26W 14D 13L from 53 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 19L across 53 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.62 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 16W 5D 5L from 26 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 9W 5D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.85 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 26W 14D 13L in their last 53 games (1.74 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 26W 8D 19L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.04 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Beijing Guoan, 69% for Hangzhou Greentown — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Beijing Guoan and 81% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Beijing Guoan's games and 69% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 81% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beijing Guoan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 3.12 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.05 xG, a combined 4.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beijing Guoan fell 3.1 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.93 / defence 1.35, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 78% | Draw 13% | Hangzhou Greentown 9%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 55%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.74 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.