Universidad de Concepcion 1-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero to face Universidad de Concepcion in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Coquimbo Unido's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Concepcion 1.06 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.084 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.124. Data: 0 Universidad de Concepcion games / 30 Coquimbo Unido games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Universidad de Concepcion 28% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 45%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Concepcion 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Coquimbo Unido 2.22. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Concepcion 28% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Universidad de Concepcion 1.06 / Coquimbo Unido 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.084 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Universidad de Concepcion xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Coquimbo Unido xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero.
What was the final score in Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido?
Universidad de Concepcion 1 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero.
What competition is Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Concepcion a 28% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Universidad de Concepcion and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Concepcion and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Concepcion and Coquimbo Unido in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Coquimbo Unido away split: 2.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Universidad de Concepcion's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (1.08x) against Universidad de Concepcion's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
28%
3.52
27%
3.73
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Universidad de Concepcion xG
Total xG
2.46
1.40
Coquimbo Unido xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
7%
14.29
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Universidad de Concepcion and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.40 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Concepcion vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Concepcion
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Universidad de Concepcion
0
Draws
1
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Concepcion and Coquimbo Unido?
From 2 meetings on record, Universidad de Concepcion have won 1, Coquimbo Unido have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Concepcion and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Universidad de Concepcion.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Concepcion home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Universidad de Concepcion defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Concepcion beat Coquimbo Unido 1-0 at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Concepcion 1.06 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.40 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Concepcion 28% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 45%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Universidad de Concepcion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.