Union La Calera 2-1 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union La Calera at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union La Calera vs Palestino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar plays host to Union La Calera versus Palestino in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Thursday 29 July 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union La Calera have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Union La Calera are significantly better at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar than their overall form suggests.
Palestino (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palestino away from home this season: 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Union La Calera's favour (2.00 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Palestino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 36% versus Palestino 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Union La Calera 36% | Palestino 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.29 xG and Palestino 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.945 / defence 0.935 | Palestino attack 1.086 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 0.991 / away 0.950. Palestino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Union La Calera games / 11 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 41% | Draw 34% | Palestino 25%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Palestino 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union La Calera at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union La Calera if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 40% | Palestino 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Jul 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 41% | Draw 34% | Palestino 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Union La Calera 1.29 / Palestino 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.945 / def 0.935 | Palestino attack 1.086 / def 1.382 | league avg home 0.991 / away 0.950 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Palestino xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Palestino kick off?
Union La Calera vs Palestino kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 29 July 2021 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Palestino?
Union La Calera 2 - 1 Palestino.
Where is Union La Calera vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Palestino part of?
Union La Calera vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 41% chance of winning, Palestino a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Union La Calera and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Palestino in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Palestino (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Palestino's attack (1.09x) against Union La Calera's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
41%
2.42
34%
2.96
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.26
0.96
Palestino xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Union La Calera and 0.96 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Union La Calera have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 6W 3D 2L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palestino's form line: 4W 2D 5L from 11 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Union La Calera are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Palestino.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Union La Calera have posted 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Union La Calera are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palestino have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union La Calera are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Palestino in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Palestino in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 games (1.91 PPG), while Palestino have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Palestino away?
Union La Calera's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 2.60 PPG; Palestino away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Palestino in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Palestino go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union La Calera have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Palestino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union La Calera
4
Draws
4
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 2, Palestino have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 40%, Palestino 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Union La Calera) and 60% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Palestino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 60% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Union La Calera's recent games and 60% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Palestino tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Palestino in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union La Calera edge out Palestino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Palestino 2-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.29 xG and Palestino 0.96 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Palestino attack 1.09 / defence 1.38, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 41% | Draw 34% | Palestino 25%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 36%, Palestino 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Palestino's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.