Union Espanola 0-3 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK plays host to Union Espanola versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 19 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Espanola have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union Espanola's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Union Espanola are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Union Espanola, 1.70 for Everton de Vina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Union Espanola register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Everton de Vina in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Espanola lead 2W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 48% versus Everton de Vina 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 52% | Everton de Vina 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 2.10 xG and Everton de Vina 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 0.921 / defence 1.172 | Everton de Vina attack 0.891 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 0.893. Everton de Vina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Union Espanola's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Union Espanola games / 40 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 64% | Draw 20% | Everton de Vina 16%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Everton de Vina 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Union Espanola (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Espanola are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 70% | Everton de Vina 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Monday 19 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 64% | Draw 20% | Everton de Vina 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Union Espanola 2.10 / Everton de Vina 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 0.921 / def 1.172 | Everton de Vina attack 0.891 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.559 / away 0.893 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Everton de Vina xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 19 May 2025 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Union Espanola 0 - 3 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 64% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union Espanola and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Everton de Vina?
Record (8 meetings): Union Espanola 2W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 4W.
What form are Union Espanola and Everton de Vina in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (0.92) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.89x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
64%
1.56
20%
5.00
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
3.03
0.93
Everton de Vina xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
12%
8.16
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
51.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Union Espanola and 0.93 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 15D 22L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 25W 15D 20L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Union Espanola against 1.50 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 13W 7D 10L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Espanola are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.48 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.77 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 0-3 on 19 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
3
Draws
5
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 50%, Everton de Vina 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Union Espanola) and 53% (Everton de Vina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Union Espanola's games and 70% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Union Espanola's matches and 53% of Everton de Vina's.
Do Union Espanola and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Union Espanola 0-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 2.10 xG and Everton de Vina 0.93 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Union Espanola fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.92 / defence 1.17 against Everton de Vina attack 0.89 / defence 1.46, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 64% | Draw 20% | Everton de Vina 16%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.40 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.