Union Espanola 1-1 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antofagasta at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Espanola and Antofagasta meet at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 June 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.42 xG and Antofagasta 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.186 / defence 1.388 | Antofagasta attack 1.072 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 0.912 / away 0.975. Antofagasta bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Union Espanola's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Union Espanola games / 8 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 37% | Draw 25% | Antofagasta 38%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Antofagasta 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antofagasta at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antofagasta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 37% | Draw 25% | Antofagasta 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Union Espanola 1.42 / Antofagasta 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.186 / def 1.388 | Antofagasta attack 1.072 / def 1.310 | league avg home 0.912 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Antofagasta (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Antofagasta xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Antofagasta kick off?
Union Espanola vs Antofagasta kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 6 June 2021 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Union Espanola 1 - 1 Antofagasta.
Where is Union Espanola vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Antofagasta part of?
Union Espanola vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 37% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antofagasta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union Espanola and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Antofagasta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Espanola and Antofagasta in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Union Espanola's attack at 1.19x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (1.07x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antofagasta Win
37%
2.72
25%
4.01
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.87
1.45
Antofagasta xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.45 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
Antofagasta
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
1
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 2, Antofagasta have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Antofagasta 2-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Antofagasta?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Union Espanola and Antofagasta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 10, as Union Espanola and Antofagasta drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.42 xG and Antofagasta 1.45 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.19 / defence 1.39 against Antofagasta attack 1.07 / defence 1.31, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 37% | Draw 25% | Antofagasta 38%, with Antofagasta to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.