U. Catolica 6-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 9 as U. Catolica welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, U. Catolica have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — U. Catolica are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Everton de Vina's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of U. Catolica's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for U. Catolica, 3 for Everton de Vina and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 57% versus Everton de Vina 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 60% | Everton de Vina 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.94 xG and Everton de Vina 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.075 / defence 0.995 | Everton de Vina attack 0.943 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 0.928. Everton de Vina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing U. Catolica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 U. Catolica games / 38 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 62% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 16%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Everton de Vina 6.25. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Everton de Vina (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 70% | Everton de Vina 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 62% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG U. Catolica 1.94 / Everton de Vina 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.075 / def 0.995 | Everton de Vina attack 0.943 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.460 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Everton de Vina xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kick off?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica 6 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina part of?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 62% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both U. Catolica and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
Record (6 meetings): U. Catolica 1W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 3W.
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 1.07x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.44
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.81
0.87
Everton de Vina xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
2%
44.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.87 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 24W 16D 20L from 60 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 25W 15D 20L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: U. Catolica on 1.47 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 11W 8D 11L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.48 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Everton de Vina away?
Everton de Vina's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.37 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Everton de Vina 0-1 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — U. Catolica at 60%, Everton de Vina at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (U. Catolica) and 53% (Everton de Vina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of U. Catolica's games and 70% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of U. Catolica's matches and 53% of Everton de Vina's.
Do U. Catolica and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant U. Catolica run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Everton de Vina 6-0 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.94 xG and Everton de Vina 0.87 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 4.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against Everton de Vina attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 62% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 16%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 60%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.47 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.