U. Catolica 2-2 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
U. Catolica host Deportes Iquique at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, U. Catolica have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Iquique stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Deportes Iquique have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, U. Catolica have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for U. Catolica, 0 for Deportes Iquique and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
U. Catolica in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Deportes Iquique in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — U. Catolica 46% and Deportes Iquique 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 46% | Deportes Iquique 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 2.15 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.229 / defence 0.850 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.130 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.194. Data: 52 U. Catolica games / 22 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 60% | Draw 20% | Deportes Iquique 19%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Deportes Iquique 5.26. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 40% | Deportes Iquique 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 60% | Draw 20% | Deportes Iquique 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG U. Catolica 2.15 / Deportes Iquique 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.229 / def 0.850 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.130 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Deportes Iquique xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique?
U. Catolica 2 - 2 Deportes Iquique.
Where is U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique part of?
U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 60% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique?
Record (1 meetings): U. Catolica 1W | Draws 0 | Deportes Iquique 0W.
What form are U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Deportes Iquique (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 1.23x the league average against Deportes Iquique's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.94
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
3.30
1.15
Deportes Iquique xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
12%
8.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
2%
44.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.15 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, U. Catolica have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 11W 5D 6L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deportes Iquique's form line: 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: U. Catolica on 1.73 PPG, Deportes Iquique on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, U. Catolica have posted 1.70 PPG from 10 outings (5W 2D 3L).
On the road, Deportes Iquique have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
U. Catolica are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Deportes Iquique are on 1.77 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique in 82%.
Defensively: U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Deportes Iquique
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 11W 5D 6L in their last 22 games (1.73 PPG), while Deportes Iquique have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Deportes Iquique away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.70 PPG; Deportes Iquique away: 1.20 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Deportes Iquique been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Deportes Iquique in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
U. Catolica's record when hosting Deportes Iquique specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
U. Catolica
2
Draws
0
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 2, Deportes Iquique have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Deportes Iquique 2-2 U. Catolica.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 40%, Deportes Iquique 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for U. Catolica and 90% for Deportes Iquique. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; U. Catolica have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Deportes Iquique?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of U. Catolica's games and 80% of Deportes Iquique's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Deportes Iquique usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of U. Catolica's matches and 90% of Deportes Iquique's.
Do U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Deportes Iquique in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica and Deportes Iquique finished level at 2-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 2.15 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.15 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.23 / defence 0.85 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.13 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 60% | Draw 20% | Deportes Iquique 19%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 46%, Deportes Iquique 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.73 PPG, Deportes Iquique 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. U. Catolica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.