U. Catolica 2-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido meet at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 July 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
U. Catolica (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Coquimbo Unido are 1.50 PPG clear of U. Catolica in recent Primera División fixtures (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — U. Catolica lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
U. Catolica — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 51% versus Coquimbo Unido 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 57% | Coquimbo Unido 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.14 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 0.956 / defence 1.047 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.995 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.119. Data: 47 U. Catolica games / 47 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 35% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 36%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Coquimbo Unido 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: U. Catolica 60% | Coquimbo Unido 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 35% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG U. Catolica 1.14 / Coquimbo Unido 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 0.956 / def 1.047 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.995 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Coquimbo Unido xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
U. Catolica 2 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 35% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (3 meetings): U. Catolica 2W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 1W.
What form are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
U. Catolica's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.99x) against U. Catolica's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
35%
2.83
28%
3.53
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.31
1.17
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.17 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
U. Catolica come into this having played 47 games, going 19W 11D 17L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.26 PPG from 47 outings (17W 8D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for U. Catolica against 1.26 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
U. Catolica's home form reads 10W 8D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 0.92 points per game from 24 outings (6W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
U. Catolica are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.19 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 19W 11D 17L in their last 47 games (1.45 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 17W 8D 22L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.58 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, U. Catolica have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
0
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when U. Catolica 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
U. Catolica see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 46%, Coquimbo Unido 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (U. Catolica) and 46% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; U. Catolica have failed to score in 29% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of U. Catolica's recent games and 46% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as U. Catolica defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Coquimbo Unido 2-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.14 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.17 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 35% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 36%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual U. Catolica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 57%, Coquimbo Unido 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.45 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.