U. Catolica 3-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido meet at Claro Arena in Primera División, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
U. Catolica (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
U. Catolica at Claro Arena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Claro Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.50 PPG for U. Catolica against 2.80 for Coquimbo Unido. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — U. Catolica lead 3W to 5W over the last 8 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 0–3 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
U. Catolica — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 48% versus Coquimbo Unido 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 45% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.07 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.026 / defence 0.888 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.960 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 0.963. Coquimbo Unido's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 33 U. Catolica games / 33 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 41% | Draw 31% | Coquimbo Unido 27%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Coquimbo Unido 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on U. Catolica if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 30% | Coquimbo Unido 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Claro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 41% | Draw 31% | Coquimbo Unido 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG U. Catolica 1.07 / Coquimbo Unido 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.026 / def 0.888 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.960 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.438 / away 0.963 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Coquimbo Unido xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Claro Arena.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
U. Catolica 3 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Claro Arena.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 41% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (8 meetings): U. Catolica 3W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 5W.
What form are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
U. Catolica's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.96x) against U. Catolica's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.18
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
1.90
0.82
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for U. Catolica and 0.82 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
U. Catolica come into this having played 60 games, going 30W 14D 16L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 2.00 PPG from 60 outings (35W 15D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for U. Catolica against 2.00 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
U. Catolica's home form reads 18W 3D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.80 points per game from 30 outings (16W 6D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
U. Catolica are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.43 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Coquimbo Unido in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 35W 15D 10L in their last 60 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.90 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.80 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
U. Catolica have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coquimbo Unido won 0-3 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, U. Catolica have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
U. Catolica
0
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 5, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-2 U. Catolica.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 47%, Coquimbo Unido 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (U. Catolica) and 43% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 37%; Coquimbo Unido in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 43% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of U. Catolica's recent games and 43% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
U. Catolica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Coquimbo Unido 3-1 at Claro Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.07 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.82 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. U. Catolica beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.96 / defence 0.73, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 41% | Draw 31% | Coquimbo Unido 27%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 45%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.73 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.