Palestino 0-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palestino vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Universidad de Chile travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 June 2021, 20:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.12 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.018 / defence 1.374 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.829 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.019. Data: 6 Palestino games / 8 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 35% | Draw 29% | Universidad de Chile 37%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Universidad de Chile 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Universidad de Chile are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Jun 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 35% | Draw 29% | Universidad de Chile 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Palestino 1.12 / Universidad de Chile 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.018 / def 1.374 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.829 / def 1.164 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Universidad de Chile xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Palestino vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 5 June 2021 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Palestino 0 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Palestino vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Palestino vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 35% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Palestino and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palestino and Universidad de Chile in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.02x the league average against Universidad de Chile's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
35%
2.88
29%
3.51
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.28
1.16
Universidad de Chile xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
12%
8.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Palestino and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Palestino and 1.16 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Pre-Season
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palestino and Universidad de Chile runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palestino's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
3
Draws
4
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 3, Universidad de Chile have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Palestino 0-0 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Universidad de Chile?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Palestino's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino and Universidad de Chile finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.12 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.16 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palestino fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Universidad de Chile landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.02 / defence 1.37 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.83 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 35% | Draw 29% | Universidad de Chile 37%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.