O'Higgins 1-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates O'Higgins at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coquimbo Unido make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face O'Higgins in Primera División, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
O'Higgins's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for O'Higgins, so this record blends games from this season and last.
O'Higgins at Estadio El Teniente this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Coquimbo Unido (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for O'Higgins, 3 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
O'Higgins — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Coquimbo Unido — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — O'Higgins 51% versus Coquimbo Unido 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (O'Higgins 51% | Coquimbo Unido 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects O'Higgins 1.24 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: O'Higgins attack 0.793 / defence 1.275 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.815 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.186. O'Higgins's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 O'Higgins games / 53 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: O'Higgins 36% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 36%. Fair-value odds: O'Higgins 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Coquimbo Unido 2.78. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: O'Higgins 40% | Coquimbo Unido 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: O'Higgins 36% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG O'Higgins 1.24 / Coquimbo Unido 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: O'Higgins attack 0.793 / def 1.275 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.815 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
O'Higgins xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Coquimbo Unido xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
O'Higgins 1 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives O'Higgins a 36% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (5 meetings): O'Higgins 2W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 3W.
What form are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido in?
O'Higgins (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates O'Higgins's attack at 0.79x the league average against Coquimbo Unido's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.81x) against O'Higgins's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
O'Higgins Win
36%
2.74
27%
3.67
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
O'Higgins xG
Total xG
2.47
1.23
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for O'Higgins and 1.23 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, O'Higgins have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 14D 23L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for O'Higgins is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 25W 11D 17L from 53 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against O'Higgins.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, O'Higgins have posted 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (5W 9D 12L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 10W 5D 11L from 26 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
O'Higgins are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.38 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
O'Higgins
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
O'Higgins have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 11D 17L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — O'Higgins at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — O'Higgins at home: 0.92 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 13 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, O'Higgins have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
O'Higgins
2
Draws
5
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, O'Higgins have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 0-0 O'Higgins.
Who has won more matches between O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
O'Higgins are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — O'Higgins 46%, Coquimbo Unido 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (O'Higgins) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: O'Higgins have failed to score in 46% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = O'Higgins home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when O'Higgins play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of O'Higgins's recent matches and 58% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is O'Higgins vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of O'Higgins's recent games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
O'Higgins have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 24, as O'Higgins and Coquimbo Unido drew 1-1 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting O'Higgins 1.24 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of O'Higgins attack 0.79 / defence 1.27 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it O'Higgins 36% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 36%, with O'Higgins to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (O'Higgins 51%, Coquimbo Unido 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
O'Higgins's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.