Nublense 0-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nublense vs Coquimbo Unido encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Nublense welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 17 February 2024 at 00:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Nublense have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Nublense have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Coquimbo Unido stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Coquimbo Unido have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Coquimbo Unido's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Nublense's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Nublense, 1 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Nublense 3–1 Coquimbo Unido — a Nublense win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Nublense in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nublense 63% and Coquimbo Unido 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 48% | Coquimbo Unido 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nublense surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Coquimbo Unido have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Coquimbo Unido surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Nublense recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.30 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.888 / defence 0.953 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.091 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.371. Data: built from Nublense's last 30 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Nublense 34% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 40%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.91 | Draw 3.91 | Coquimbo Unido 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nublense 50% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Nublense 30 games, Coquimbo Unido 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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