Huachipato 0-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Huachipato take on Union La Calera.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio CAP plays host to Huachipato versus Union La Calera in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 1 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Huachipato's overall Primera División record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 games at Estadio CAP this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio CAP. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Union La Calera (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera's away record: 2W 2D 2L from 6 road trips in Primera División this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Union La Calera are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Huachipato half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Union La Calera half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 42% versus Union La Calera 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Huachipato 33% | Union La Calera 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.00 xG and Union La Calera 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 0.754 / defence 1.073 | Union La Calera attack 0.960 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.008 / away 1.025. Huachipato's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union La Calera bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Huachipato's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Huachipato games / 12 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 30% | Draw 36% | Union La Calera 33%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Union La Calera 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Huachipato 17% | Union La Calera 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 30% | Draw 36% | Union La Calera 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Huachipato 1.00 / Union La Calera 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 0.754 / def 1.073 | Union La Calera attack 0.960 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.008 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Union La Calera xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Union La Calera kick off?
Huachipato vs Union La Calera kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Huachipato 0 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Huachipato vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Union La Calera part of?
Huachipato vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 30% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Huachipato and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Huachipato and Union La Calera in?
Huachipato (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (0.75) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.96x) against Huachipato's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.29
36%
2.75
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.06
1.06
Union La Calera xG
3.29
30%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.06 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Huachipato come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 6D 5L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (7W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Huachipato — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Huachipato's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union La Calera's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Huachipato are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.17 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Union La Calera in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 1W 6D 5L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Union La Calera away?
Union La Calera's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.00 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Huachipato or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Huachipato have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Huachipato go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Huachipato have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Huachipato
0
Draws
6
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 4, Union La Calera have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Huachipato 3-1 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Huachipato see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Huachipato) and 33% (Union La Calera) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Huachipato and 50% for Union La Calera.
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Union La Calera in 33%; Huachipato have failed to score in 83% of games; Union La Calera in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Huachipato's recent matches and 33% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Huachipato vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Huachipato's recent games and 50% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Huachipato's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 14, as Huachipato and Union La Calera drew 0-0 in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.00 xG and Union La Calera 1.06 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Huachipato fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Union La Calera landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 0.75 / defence 1.07 against Union La Calera attack 0.96 / defence 1.32, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 30% | Draw 36% | Union La Calera 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 33%, Union La Calera 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union La Calera's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union La Calera arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Huachipato (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.