Huachipato 2-1 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Huachipato at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Deportes Iquique travel to Estadio CAP to take on Huachipato. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 April 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Huachipato stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Huachipato have posted 5W 4D 1L at Estadio CAP — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio CAP. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio CAP this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.41 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 0.878 / defence 0.844 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.185 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.193. Data: 38 Huachipato games / 8 Deportes Iquique games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 42% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 32%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Deportes Iquique 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Huachipato as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Huachipato offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 42% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Huachipato 1.41 / Deportes Iquique 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 0.878 / def 0.844 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.185 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Huachipato (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Deportes Iquique xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique?
Huachipato 2 - 1 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 42% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Huachipato the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Huachipato and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Deportes Iquique?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Huachipato and Deportes Iquique in?
Huachipato (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Huachipato home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Huachipato's attack at 0.88x the league average against Deportes Iquique's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus Huachipato's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Huachipato Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.82
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.60
1.19
Deportes Iquique xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.19 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2025, when Deportes Iquique won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Huachipato's record when hosting Deportes Iquique specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Huachipato
1
Draws
2
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 1, Deportes Iquique have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Huachipato 1-1 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Deportes Iquique?
Deportes Iquique have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Huachipato edge out Deportes Iquique 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Deportes Iquique 2-1 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.41 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.19 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.19 / defence 1.20, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 42% | Draw 26% | Deportes Iquique 32%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.