Huachipato 3-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Huachipato at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio CAP plays host to Huachipato versus Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Monday 30 September 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Huachipato have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato at Estadio CAP this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Huachipato 2W, Coquimbo Unido 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 1–3 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Huachipato goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 52% versus Coquimbo Unido 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Huachipato 50% | Coquimbo Unido 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 1.21 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 0.795 / defence 0.925 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.829 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.130. Huachipato's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Huachipato games / 55 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 44% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 26%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Coquimbo Unido 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Huachipato as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Huachipato if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Huachipato 40% | Coquimbo Unido 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 44% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Huachipato 1.21 / Coquimbo Unido 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 0.795 / def 0.925 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.829 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Huachipato (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Coquimbo Unido xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 22:00 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Huachipato 3 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 44% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Huachipato the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (5 meetings): Huachipato 2W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido in?
Huachipato (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (0.80) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coquimbo Unido's attack (0.83x) against Huachipato's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Huachipato Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.38
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.08
0.87
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 10.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Huachipato and 0.87 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Huachipato have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 23W 13D 18L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 25W 13D 16L from 54 games, 1.63 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Huachipato against 1.63 for Coquimbo Unido. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Huachipato have posted 1.62 PPG from 26 outings (11W 9D 6L).
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 10W 6D 10L from 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Huachipato are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.41 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Huachipato's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.62 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Huachipato have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Huachipato
2
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Huachipato 1-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 42%, Coquimbo Unido 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Huachipato) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Huachipato's recent matches and 62% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Huachipato's recent games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Huachipato edge out Coquimbo Unido 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Huachipato beat Coquimbo Unido 3-2 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 1.21 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.87 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Huachipato beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 0.80 / defence 0.93 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.83 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 44% | Draw 30% | Coquimbo Unido 26%, with Huachipato to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 50%, Coquimbo Unido 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Huachipato 1.52 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Huachipato win broke the near-deadlock. Huachipato (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.