Huachipato 1-2 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Colo Colo (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Huachipato face Colo Colo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Huachipato host Colo Colo at Estadio CAP in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Huachipato have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Huachipato, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Huachipato's home record at Estadio CAP: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Huachipato are significantly better at Estadio CAP than their overall form suggests.
Colo Colo — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Colo Colo have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Colo Colo — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Colo Colo have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Huachipato's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Colo Colo winning.
It is worth noting that Colo Colo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Huachipato in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Colo Colo in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Huachipato 53% versus Colo Colo 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Huachipato 51% | Colo Colo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Huachipato 0.89 xG and Colo Colo 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Huachipato attack 0.911 / defence 1.047 | Colo Colo attack 1.051 / defence 0.646. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.092. Colo Colo's defence strength of 0.646 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Huachipato games / 55 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Huachipato 27% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 43%. Fair-value odds: Huachipato 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Colo Colo 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Huachipato 50% | Colo Colo 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Huachipato vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio CAP • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Huachipato 27% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Huachipato 0.89 / Colo Colo 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Huachipato attack 0.911 / def 1.047 | Colo Colo attack 1.051 / def 0.646 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Huachipato xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Colo Colo xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Huachipato vs Colo Colo kick off?
Huachipato vs Colo Colo kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 October 2024 at Estadio CAP.
What was the final score in Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Huachipato 1 - 2 Colo Colo.
Where is Huachipato vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio CAP.
What competition is Huachipato vs Colo Colo part of?
Huachipato vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Huachipato a 27% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Huachipato and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Huachipato vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Colo Colo?
Record (6 meetings): Huachipato 1W | Draws 0 | Colo Colo 5W.
What form are Huachipato and Colo Colo in?
Huachipato (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Colo Colo (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Huachipato's attack rating (0.91) and Colo Colo's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Huachipato's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
27%
3.67
30%
3.38
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Huachipato xG
Total xG
2.09
1.20
Colo Colo xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.9 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Huachipato and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Huachipato and 1.20 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Huachipato vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Huachipato come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 13D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Huachipato is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Colo Colo sit at 1.96 PPG from 55 outings (32W 12D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Huachipato — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Huachipato's home form reads 11W 9D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Colo Colo have taken 1.73 points per game from 26 outings (12W 9D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Huachipato are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.53 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Huachipato
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Huachipato and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Huachipato have gone 23W 13D 19L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 32W 12D 11L in their last 55 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Huachipato at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Huachipato at home: 1.62 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Huachipato or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Huachipato have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Huachipato's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Huachipato
1
Draws
7
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Huachipato and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Huachipato have won 2, Colo Colo have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Huachipato and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Colo Colo 2-0 Huachipato.
Who has won more matches between Huachipato and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Huachipato are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Huachipato 46%, Colo Colo 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Huachipato) and 42% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Huachipato keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Colo Colo in 50%; Colo Colo in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Huachipato home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Huachipato play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Huachipato's recent matches and 38% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Huachipato vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Huachipato's recent games and 42% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Huachipato and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Huachipato have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Huachipato 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Huachipato 1-2 at Estadio CAP, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Huachipato 0.89 xG and Colo Colo 1.20 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Huachipato attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Colo Colo attack 1.05 / defence 0.65, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Huachipato 27% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 43%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Huachipato 51%, Colo Colo 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Huachipato's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Colo Colo's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.49. Form held, and they took the win. Huachipato (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.