Everton de Vina 1-2 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 17 as Everton de Vina welcome Union La Calera to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 July 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Everton de Vina — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Sausalito, Everton de Vina have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Everton de Vina carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Everton de Vina, 2 for Union La Calera and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 2–3 with Union La Calera winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 56% versus Union La Calera 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 41% | Union La Calera 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.58 xG and Union La Calera 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.159 / defence 0.990 | Union La Calera attack 1.076 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.164. Data: 46 Everton de Vina games / 46 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 45% | Draw 25% | Union La Calera 30%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Union La Calera 3.33. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Union La Calera lead the H2H ledger, but Everton de Vina carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 50% | Union La Calera 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jul 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 45% | Draw 25% | Union La Calera 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Everton de Vina 1.58 / Union La Calera 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.159 / def 0.990 | Union La Calera attack 1.076 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Union La Calera xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 16 July 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Everton de Vina 1 - 2 Union La Calera.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera part of?
Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 45% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Everton de Vina and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
Record (3 meetings): Everton de Vina 0W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 2W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (1.16) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.04
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.82
1.24
Union La Calera xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.24 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 16W 19D 11L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union La Calera's form line: 12W 21D 13L from 46 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.46 PPG, Union La Calera on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (10W 9D 4L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 4W 10D 9L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.20 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 16W 19D 11L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 12W 21D 13L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Union La Calera away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.70 PPG; Union La Calera away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
6
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 1, Union La Calera have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Union La Calera?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 48%, Union La Calera 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton de Vina) and 48% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 26% of games; Union La Calera in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 61% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 48% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.58 xG and Union La Calera 1.24 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Union La Calera attack 1.08 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 45% | Draw 25% | Union La Calera 30%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 41%, Union La Calera 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Union La Calera's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.46 PPG, Union La Calera 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union La Calera win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union La Calera (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.