Everton de Vina 3-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Sausalito to face Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Union Espanola have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.50 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Everton de Vina, 2 for Union Espanola and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 2–4 with Union Espanola winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Union Espanola — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 62% versus Union Espanola 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Union Espanola 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.10 xG and Union Espanola 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.762 / defence 0.876 | Union Espanola attack 0.906 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.204. Everton de Vina's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Everton de Vina games / 52 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 39% | Draw 30% | Union Espanola 31%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Union Espanola 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 50% | Union Espanola 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 39% | Draw 30% | Union Espanola 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Everton de Vina 1.10 / Union Espanola 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.762 / def 0.876 | Union Espanola attack 0.906 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Union Espanola xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Everton de Vina 3 - 2 Union Espanola.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola part of?
Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 39% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Everton de Vina and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
Record (7 meetings): Everton de Vina 3W | Draws 2 | Union Espanola 2W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (0.91x) against Everton de Vina's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
39%
2.59
30%
3.30
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.05
0.95
Union Espanola xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.95 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Everton de Vina come into this having played 52 games, going 21W 13D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.38 PPG from 52 outings (19W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.38 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Everton de Vina's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (4W 10D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.52 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 21W 13D 18L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 19W 15D 18L in their last 52 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Union Espanola away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.40 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 0-3 on 19 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 5, Union Espanola have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Union Espanola?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 60%, Union Espanola 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Everton de Vina) and 40% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Union Espanola in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 48% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 40% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Union Espanola 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Union Espanola 3-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.10 xG and Union Espanola 0.95 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Espanola outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.76 / defence 0.88 against Union Espanola attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 39% | Draw 30% | Union Espanola 31%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Union Espanola 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Union Espanola's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.46 PPG, Union Espanola 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.