Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Palestino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 10 as Everton de Vina welcome Palestino to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palestino's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Everton de Vina) versus 1.70 (Palestino). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Everton de Vina hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Palestino, with 3 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 4–1 with Everton de Vina winning.
The historical record gives Everton de Vina a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Palestino in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 62% versus Palestino 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Palestino 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.10 xG and Palestino 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.862 / defence 0.940 | Palestino attack 1.165 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 0.928. Data: 39 Everton de Vina games / 39 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 37% | Draw 30% | Palestino 33%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Palestino 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 40% | Palestino 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 37% | Draw 30% | Palestino 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Everton de Vina 1.10 / Palestino 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.862 / def 0.940 | Palestino attack 1.165 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.534 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Palestino xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Palestino kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Everton de Vina 1 - 2 Palestino.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Palestino part of?
Everton de Vina vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 37% chance of winning, Palestino a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Everton de Vina and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Record (7 meetings): Everton de Vina 4W | Draws 3 | Palestino 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Palestino's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.36
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.12
1.02
Palestino xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.02 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Everton de Vina have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 25W 15D 20L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Palestino's form line: 27W 14D 19L from 60 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.50 PPG, Palestino on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Everton de Vina have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
On the road, Palestino have gone 11W 8D 11L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.53 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palestino in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Palestino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Palestino in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 25W 15D 20L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Palestino have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Palestino away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.47 PPG; Palestino away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Palestino in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Palestino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 13 June 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palestino have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Everton de Vina
3
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 4, Palestino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 13 June 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Palestino?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 53%, Palestino 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Everton de Vina) and 50% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Palestino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Everton de Vina's games and 57% of Palestino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Palestino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 50% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Palestino tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palestino in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palestino defy the odds to beat Everton de Vina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Everton de Vina 1-2 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.10 xG and Palestino 1.02 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palestino outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.86 / defence 0.94 against Palestino attack 1.17 / defence 0.83, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 37% | Draw 30% | Palestino 33%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Palestino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 50%, Palestino 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Palestino's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG, Palestino 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palestino win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.