Everton de Vina 2-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 4 as Everton de Vina welcome Coquimbo Unido to Estadio Sausalito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina's home record at Estadio Sausalito: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Primera División appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Everton de Vina at 1.40 PPG versus Coquimbo Unido's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 1, Coquimbo Unido 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 53% versus Coquimbo Unido 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 33% | Coquimbo Unido 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.31 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.905 / defence 1.140 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.852 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.175. Data: 33 Everton de Vina games / 33 Coquimbo Unido games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 32%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Coquimbo Unido 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 60% | Coquimbo Unido 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Everton de Vina 1.31 / Coquimbo Unido 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.905 / def 1.140 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.852 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Coquimbo Unido xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina 2 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 41% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (2 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton de Vina's attack rating (0.91) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
41%
2.47
27%
3.68
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.45
1.14
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.71
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.14 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 9W 15D 6L from 30 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 17L across 30 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Everton de Vina by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Coquimbo Unido heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 5W 8D 2L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 2W 3D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 9W 15D 6L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.53 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Everton de Vina's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Everton de Vina
4
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 47%, Coquimbo Unido 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Everton de Vina) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Coquimbo Unido 2-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.31 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.14 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 41% | Draw 27% | Coquimbo Unido 32%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 33%, Coquimbo Unido 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Everton de Vina arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.