Everton de Vina 3-0 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Everton de Vina and Antofagasta meet at Estadio Sausalito in Primera División, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Everton de Vina at Estadio Sausalito this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Antofagasta's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Everton de Vina, 0 for Antofagasta and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 47% versus Antofagasta 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Everton de Vina 32% | Antofagasta 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.27 xG and Antofagasta 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 1.033 / defence 1.008 | Antofagasta attack 0.727 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.094. Data: 60 Everton de Vina games / 60 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 48% | Draw 29% | Antofagasta 23%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Antofagasta 4.35. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Everton de Vina 60% | Antofagasta 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 48% | Draw 29% | Antofagasta 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Everton de Vina 1.27 / Antofagasta 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 1.033 / def 1.008 | Antofagasta attack 0.727 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Antofagasta xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Everton de Vina 3 - 0 Antofagasta.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta part of?
Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 48% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Everton de Vina and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Antofagasta?
Record (3 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 2 | Antofagasta 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Antofagasta in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Antofagasta (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton de Vina's attack at 1.03x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.73x) against Everton de Vina's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.45
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.08
0.80
Antofagasta xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 0.80 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton de Vina come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 24D 18L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Antofagasta sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (18W 19D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.22 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Everton de Vina's home form reads 10W 12D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Antofagasta have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (5W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 0.95 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Antofagasta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 18W 24D 18L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Antofagasta away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.40 PPG; Antofagasta away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Everton de Vina or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton de Vina have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton de Vina have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
2
Draws
0
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Antofagasta have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2022, when Everton de Vina 3-0 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Antofagasta?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 40%, Antofagasta 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Everton de Vina and 27% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games; Antofagasta in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Everton de Vina's recent matches and 43% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton de Vina vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 27% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Antofagasta.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Antofagasta 3-0 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.27 xG and Antofagasta 0.80 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antofagasta landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Antofagasta attack 0.73 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 48% | Draw 29% | Antofagasta 23%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 32%, Antofagasta 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antofagasta's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.30 PPG, Antofagasta 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.