Deportes Iquique 2-1 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Iquique host Palestino at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 29 April 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Primera División games this season, Palestino have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palestino's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 0.90 xG and Palestino 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 1.126 / defence 1.219 | Palestino attack 1.024 / defence 0.553. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.297. Palestino's defence strength of 0.553 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Deportes Iquique games / 39 Palestino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 21% | Draw 25% | Palestino 54%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Palestino 1.85. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 21% | Draw 25% | Palestino 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Deportes Iquique 0.90 / Palestino 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 1.126 / def 1.219 | Palestino attack 1.024 / def 0.553 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Palestino (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Palestino xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Palestino kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Palestino kicked off at 01:30 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Deportes Iquique 2 - 1 Palestino.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Palestino part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Palestino is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 21% chance of winning, Palestino a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Palestino will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Palestino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Palestino in?
Palestino (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Palestino away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Deportes Iquique's attack at 1.13x the league average against Palestino's defence at 0.55x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
21%
4.81
25%
4.03
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.52
1.62
Palestino xG
4.81
21%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
4%
24.26
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.62 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
Palestino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palestino go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Deportes Iquique's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
0
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Palestino?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Palestino have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Palestino last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when Palestino 2-0 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Deportes Iquique defy the odds to beat Palestino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Palestino 2-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 0.90 xG and Palestino 1.62 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 1.13 / defence 1.22 against Palestino attack 1.02 / defence 0.55, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 21% | Draw 25% | Palestino 54%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Deportes Iquique win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.