Deportes Copiapo 2-5 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Deportes Copiapo and Colo Colo meet at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Primera División, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 January 2023 at 21:30 UTC.
Current Form
Colo Colo (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Colo Colo's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.03 xG and Colo Colo 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Colo Colo attack 1.098 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.117. Data: 0 Deportes Copiapo games / 30 Colo Colo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 28% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 46%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Colo Colo 2.17. Colo Colo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Colo Colo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 28% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.03 / Colo Colo 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Colo Colo attack 1.098 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Colo Colo xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo?
Deportes Copiapo 2 - 5 Colo Colo.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 28% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Colo Colo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Colo Colo in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Colo Colo away split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Deportes Copiapo's attack rating (0.85) and Colo Colo's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.10x) against Deportes Copiapo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
28%
3.63
27%
3.74
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.44
1.41
Colo Colo xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.89
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.41 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 2-5 on 22 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Copiapo have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Copiapo
2
Draws
1
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Colo Colo?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Colo Colo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 1-1 Colo Colo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Deportes Copiapo 2-5 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 1, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.03 xG and Colo Colo 1.41 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Deportes Copiapo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Colo Colo outscored their 1.41 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Colo Colo attack 1.10 / defence 0.88, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 28% | Draw 27% | Colo Colo 46%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.