Deportes Copiapo 0-3 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cobresal at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla plays host to Deportes Copiapo versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 22 July 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Deportes Copiapo (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Copiapo's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 games at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla this term (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cobresal have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cobresal are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Deportes Copiapo have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Cobresal in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Deportes Copiapo 0W, Cobresal 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Cobresal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cobresal — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 44% versus Cobresal 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Copiapo 50% | Cobresal 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.05 xG and Cobresal 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.827 / defence 1.166 | Cobresal attack 1.077 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.126. Data: 16 Deportes Copiapo games / 47 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 28% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 45%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Cobresal 2.22. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Deportes Copiapo 62% | Cobresal 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 28% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.05 / Cobresal 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.827 / def 1.166 | Cobresal attack 1.077 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Cobresal xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Deportes Copiapo 0 - 3 Cobresal.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 28% chance of winning, Cobresal a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal?
Record (1 meetings): Deportes Copiapo 0W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal in?
Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Cobresal (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Deportes Copiapo's attack at 0.83x the league average against Cobresal's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (1.08x) against Deportes Copiapo's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 16/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
28%
3.56
27%
3.75
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.47
1.41
Cobresal xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
7%
14.63
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.41 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Deportes Copiapo come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 4D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Deportes Copiapo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Deportes Copiapo's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.56 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Cobresal in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 7W 5D 4L in their last 16 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or Cobresal away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.12 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Deportes Copiapo or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deportes Copiapo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cobresal in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since February 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cobresal won 0-3 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Copiapo have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Copiapo
1
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 0, Cobresal have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 2-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Deportes Copiapo, 75% for Cobresal — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Deportes Copiapo) and 62% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Copiapo play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Deportes Copiapo's games and 75% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Copiapo vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Deportes Copiapo's matches and 62% of Cobresal's.
Do Deportes Copiapo and Cobresal tend to score early?
Deportes Copiapo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cobresal run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Deportes Copiapo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Deportes Copiapo 0-3 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.05 xG and Cobresal 1.41 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Copiapo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cobresal outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Cobresal attack 1.08 / defence 1.02, drawn from 16/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 28% | Draw 27% | Cobresal 45%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 50%, Cobresal 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cobresal's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cobresal arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.