D. La Serena 0-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates D. La Serena at 37%, yet in-form Coquimbo Unido provide a compelling counter-argument — this D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Coquimbo Unido travel to La Portada to take on D. La Serena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
D. La Serena — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, D. La Serena have posted 1W 4D 5L at La Portada — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have recorded 9W 1D 0L from 10 outings — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Coquimbo Unido away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Coquimbo Unido are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Coquimbo Unido have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for D. La Serena.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Coquimbo Unido have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
D. La Serena in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — D. La Serena 70% versus Coquimbo Unido 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (D. La Serena 57% | Coquimbo Unido 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects D. La Serena 1.21 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: D. La Serena attack 0.972 / defence 1.230 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.977 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 0.978. Data: 32 D. La Serena games / 32 Coquimbo Unido games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: D. La Serena 37% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 35%. Fair-value odds: D. La Serena 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Coquimbo Unido 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates D. La Serena as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coquimbo Unido (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on D. La Serena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: D. La Serena 60% | Coquimbo Unido 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: La Portada • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: D. La Serena 37% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG D. La Serena 1.21 / Coquimbo Unido 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: D. La Serena attack 0.972 / def 1.230 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.977 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.501 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: D. La Serena (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
D. La Serena xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Coquimbo Unido xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at La Portada.
What was the final score in D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
D. La Serena 0 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at La Portada.
What competition is D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives D. La Serena a 37% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making D. La Serena the favourite.
Will both teams score in D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (4 meetings): D. La Serena 0W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 3W.
What form are D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido in?
D. La Serena (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from D. La Serena's attack rating (0.97) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus D. La Serena's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
D. La Serena Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.60
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
D. La Serena xG
Total xG
2.38
1.17
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for D. La Serena and 1.17 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
D. La Serena's recent record stands at 7W 6D 17L from 30 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Coquimbo Unido, meanwhile, have gone 23W 6D 1L across 30 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coquimbo Unido by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over D. La Serena heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, D. La Serena have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coquimbo Unido's away record stands at 11W 3D 1L across 15 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
D. La Serena are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.63 scored and 0.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: D. La Serena have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
D. La Serena
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
D. La Serena have gone 7W 6D 17L in their last 30 games (0.90 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 23W 6D 1L in their last 30 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — D. La Serena at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — D. La Serena at home: 1.27 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 2.40 PPG.
Have D. La Serena or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
D. La Serena have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
D. La Serena's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
D. La Serena
2
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, D. La Serena have won 0, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 1-1 D. La Serena.
Who has won more matches between D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
D. La Serena see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — D. La Serena 60%, Coquimbo Unido 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (D. La Serena) and 40% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido in 60%; D. La Serena have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = D. La Serena home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when D. La Serena play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of D. La Serena's recent matches and 33% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is D. La Serena vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of D. La Serena's recent games and 40% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do D. La Serena and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
D. La Serena have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat D. La Serena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat D. La Serena 0-1 at La Portada, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting D. La Serena 1.21 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.17 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. D. La Serena fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of D. La Serena attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.98 / defence 0.82, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it D. La Serena 37% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 35%, with D. La Serena to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (D. La Serena 57%, Coquimbo Unido 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
D. La Serena's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. D. La Serena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.