Curico Unido 0-4 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Curico Unido at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Curico Unido host Everton de Vina at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Primera División, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 July 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Curico Unido have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Curico Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Curico Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton de Vina stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Curico Unido have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Curico Unido, 0 for Everton de Vina and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Curico Unido in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Curico Unido 55% versus Everton de Vina 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Curico Unido 45% | Everton de Vina 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.58 xG and Everton de Vina 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.203 / defence 0.847 | Everton de Vina attack 0.999 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.082. Data: 51 Curico Unido games / 51 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 53% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 22%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Everton de Vina 4.55. Curico Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Curico Unido are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Curico Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Curico Unido 30% | Everton de Vina 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 53% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Curico Unido 1.58 / Everton de Vina 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.203 / def 0.847 | Everton de Vina attack 0.999 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Curico Unido (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Everton de Vina xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:30 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Curico Unido 0 - 4 Everton de Vina.
Where is Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina part of?
Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 53% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Curico Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Curico Unido and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina?
Record (3 meetings): Curico Unido 0W | Draws 3 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Curico Unido and Everton de Vina in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Curico Unido's attack rating (1.20) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Curico Unido Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.95
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.49
0.92
Everton de Vina xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
5%
22.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Curico Unido and 0.92 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Curico Unido have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 18W 18D 15L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Curico Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 15W 19D 17L from 51 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Curico Unido on 1.41 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Curico Unido have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (10W 9D 6L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 6W 10D 9L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Curico Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Curico Unido are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.92 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Curico Unido and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Curico Unido have gone 18W 18D 15L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 15W 19D 17L in their last 51 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Curico Unido at home or Everton de Vina away?
Curico Unido's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Curico Unido at home: 1.56 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Curico Unido or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Curico Unido have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2022, when Everton de Vina won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Curico Unido's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Curico Unido
4
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina?
From 6 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 0, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Curico Unido 52%, Everton de Vina 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Curico Unido) and 28% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Curico Unido keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Curico Unido play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Curico Unido's recent matches and 52% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Curico Unido vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Curico Unido's recent games and 28% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Curico Unido and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Curico Unido have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Curico Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Curico Unido 0-4 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.58 xG and Everton de Vina 0.92 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Curico Unido fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against Everton de Vina attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 53% | Draw 25% | Everton de Vina 22%, with Curico Unido to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Everton de Vina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Curico Unido 45%, Everton de Vina 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Curico Unido's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Curico Unido 1.41 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Curico Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.