Coquimbo Unido 1-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido host Universidad de Chile at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Universidad de Chile — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Universidad de Chile away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.80 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.014 / defence 1.330 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.213 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.143. Universidad de Chile bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Coquimbo Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Universidad de Chile have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Coquimbo Unido games / 40 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 38% | Draw 22% | Universidad de Chile 40%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.63 | Draw 4.55 | Universidad de Chile 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Universidad de Chile are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 38% | Draw 22% | Universidad de Chile 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.80 / Universidad de Chile 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.014 / def 1.330 | Universidad de Chile attack 1.213 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Universidad de Chile xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Coquimbo Unido 1 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 38% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Universidad de Chile away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (1.01) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
38%
2.62
22%
4.55
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
3.64
1.84
Universidad de Chile xG
2.62
38%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
6%
16.55
7%
15.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.84 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Chile?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Coquimbo Unido
3
Draws
2
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, Universidad de Chile have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Universidad de Chile?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Coquimbo Unido defy the odds to beat Universidad de Chile 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.80 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.84 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Universidad de Chile landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.01 / defence 1.33 against Universidad de Chile attack 1.21 / defence 1.29, drawn from 8/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 38% | Draw 22% | Universidad de Chile 40%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.