Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Coquimbo Unido (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coquimbo Unido face Union La Calera.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera meet at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Coquimbo Unido's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 4W 3D 3L at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Union La Calera have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union La Calera, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union La Calera away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Coquimbo Unido. A 0.90 PPG lead over Union La Calera (1.30 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Coquimbo Unido, who have won 6 of the last 9 meetings against Union La Calera — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The historical record gives Coquimbo Unido a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Union La Calera goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 53% versus Union La Calera 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 47% | Union La Calera 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.55 xG and Union La Calera 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.879 / defence 0.894 | Union La Calera attack 0.632 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.353. Data: 49 Coquimbo Unido games / 51 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 56% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 18%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Union La Calera 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 60% | Union La Calera 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 56% | Draw 26% | Union La Calera 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.55 / Union La Calera 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.879 / def 0.894 | Union La Calera attack 0.632 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Union La Calera xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 56% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera?
Record (9 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 6W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Union La Calera (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (0.88) and Union La Calera's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.63x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 49/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.91
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.31
0.77
Union La Calera xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
4%
25.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.77 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 49 games, going 30W 11D 8L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union La Calera sit at 0.94 PPG from 49 outings (12W 10D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Union La Calera is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 15W 6D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Union La Calera have taken 0.67 points per game from 24 outings (4W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 0.92 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Union La Calera
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 30W 11D 8L in their last 49 games (2.06 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Union La Calera away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.12 PPG; Union La Calera away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Coquimbo Unido have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coquimbo Unido have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
2
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, Union La Calera have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Union La Calera 1-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Union La Calera?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 54%, Union La Calera 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Coquimbo Unido) and 42% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Union La Calera in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 38% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 42% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.