Coquimbo Unido 2-1 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Deportes Limache make the trip to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to face Coquimbo Unido in Primera División, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 August 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coquimbo Unido have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 6W 4D 0L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Deportes Limache (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Limache's away record: 0W 4D 4L from 8 road trips in Primera División this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Coquimbo Unido. A 1.40 PPG lead over Deportes Limache (2.30 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Coquimbo Unido lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Coquimbo Unido goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time.
Deportes Limache goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 29% versus Deportes Limache 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Coquimbo Unido 35% | Deportes Limache 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.74 xG and Deportes Limache 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.044 / defence 0.722 | Deportes Limache attack 0.822 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.071. Coquimbo Unido's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Coquimbo Unido games / 17 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 64% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 13%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.56 | Draw 4.35 | Deportes Limache 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coquimbo Unido 30% | Deportes Limache 88%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 64% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 39% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.74 / Deportes Limache 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.044 / def 0.722 | Deportes Limache attack 0.822 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Deportes Limache xG
39%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 1 Deportes Limache.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 64% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache?
Record (1 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 1W | Draws 0 | Deportes Limache 0W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Deportes Limache (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coquimbo Unido's attack rating (1.04) and Deportes Limache's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deportes Limache's attack (0.82x) against Coquimbo Unido's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
64%
1.56
23%
4.38
13%
7.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.37
0.64
Deportes Limache xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
7.60
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
2%
43.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.64 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 17 games, going 11W 5D 1L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Limache sit at 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Deportes Limache is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of Deportes Limache — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 5W 3D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Limache have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.47 conceded per game recently; Deportes Limache are on 1.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Deportes Limache
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 11W 5D 1L in their last 17 games (2.24 PPG), while Deportes Limache have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Deportes Limache away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 2.25 PPG; Deportes Limache away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Coquimbo Unido or Deportes Limache been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coquimbo Unido have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their recent games, Deportes Limache in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Coquimbo Unido
0
Draws
0
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache?
From 3 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 3, Deportes Limache have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Deportes Limache 2-3 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coquimbo Unido tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 38%, Deportes Limache 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Coquimbo Unido) and 62% (Deportes Limache).
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Deportes Limache?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 88% of Deportes Limache's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Deportes Limache usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 62% of Deportes Limache's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Deportes Limache tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Deportes Limache in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Deportes Limache 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Deportes Limache 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 18, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.74 xG and Deportes Limache 0.64 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.04 / defence 0.72 against Deportes Limache attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 64% | Draw 23% | Deportes Limache 13%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 35%, Deportes Limache 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and conceded here.
Deportes Limache's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.