Colo Colo 3-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Colo Colo at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Union La Calera encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Union La Calera at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Colo Colo have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Colo Colo have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio Monumental David Arellano — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Union La Calera — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union La Calera's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Colo Colo have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Colo Colo have won 2, Union La Calera 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Colo Colo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Colo Colo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Union La Calera in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 48% versus Union La Calera 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 40% | Union La Calera 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.27 xG and Union La Calera 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.985 / defence 0.911 | Union La Calera attack 0.862 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.298. Data: 39 Colo Colo games / 39 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 42% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 30%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Union La Calera 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Colo Colo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Colo Colo 50% | Union La Calera 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 42% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Colo Colo 1.27 / Union La Calera 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.985 / def 0.911 | Union La Calera attack 0.862 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Union La Calera xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Union La Calera kick off?
Colo Colo vs Union La Calera kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Colo Colo 3 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Colo Colo vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Union La Calera part of?
Colo Colo vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 42% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Colo Colo and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union La Calera?
Record (5 meetings): Colo Colo 2W | Draws 2 | Union La Calera 1W.
What form are Colo Colo and Union La Calera in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (0.98) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.55
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.29
1.02
Union La Calera xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Colo Colo and 1.02 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Colo Colo have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 33W 18D 9L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Union La Calera's form line: 19W 23D 18L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union La Calera.
Venue Form
On home soil, Colo Colo have posted 2.23 PPG from 30 outings (20W 7D 3L).
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 8W 11D 11L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Colo Colo are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 1.30 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera in 60%.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 33W 18D 9L in their last 60 games (1.95 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Union La Calera away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.23 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Union La Calera been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Union La Calera in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Colo Colo go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Colo Colo
2
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Union La Calera?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 7, Union La Calera have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Colo Colo 1-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Union La Calera?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 37%, Union La Calera 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Colo Colo) and 50% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Union La Calera in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 60% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Colo Colo's recent games and 50% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Union La Calera 3-1 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 10, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.27 xG and Union La Calera 1.02 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Union La Calera attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 42% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 30%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 40%, Union La Calera 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Union La Calera (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.