Colo Colo 2-0 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Monumental David Arellano plays host to Colo Colo versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Tuesday 14 September 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Colo Colo (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 games at Estadio Monumental David Arellano this term (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Monumental David Arellano. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.56 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Monumental David Arellano this season.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Colo Colo's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Colo Colo half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 42% versus Everton de Vina 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Colo Colo 37% | Everton de Vina 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 0.98 xG and Everton de Vina 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 0.912 / defence 0.900 | Everton de Vina attack 0.606 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.216. Data: 19 Colo Colo games / 19 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 40% | Draw 37% | Everton de Vina 23%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 2.50 | Draw 2.70 | Everton de Vina 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Everton de Vina's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.64 combined xG gives a 23% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 33% | Everton de Vina 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Sep 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 40% | Draw 37% | Everton de Vina 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Colo Colo 0.98 / Everton de Vina 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 0.912 / def 0.900 | Everton de Vina attack 0.606 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Everton de Vina xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:00 on Tuesday 14 September 2021 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Colo Colo 2 - 0 Everton de Vina.
Where is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina part of?
Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 40% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 23% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Colo Colo and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Colo Colo's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.61x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 21.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
40%
2.47
37%
2.71
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
1.64
0.66
Everton de Vina xG
2.47
40%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.16
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 12.8 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.66 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colo Colo's recent record stands at 11W 4D 4L from 19 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 6L across 19 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton de Vina heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Colo Colo have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Colo Colo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.89 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Everton de Vina in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 11W 4D 4L in their last 19 games (1.95 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 7W 6D 6L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Everton de Vina away?
Colo Colo's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 1.56 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Colo Colo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 4-1 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Colo Colo
3
Draws
0
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 7, Everton de Vina have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-4 Colo Colo.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Everton de Vina?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Colo Colo) and 33% (Everton de Vina) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Colo Colo and 11% for Everton de Vina.
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 33%; Everton de Vina in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 33% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Colo Colo's recent games and 11% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Colo Colo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Everton de Vina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Everton de Vina 2-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 0.98 xG and Everton de Vina 0.66 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Everton de Vina attack 0.61 / defence 0.97, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 40% | Draw 37% | Everton de Vina 23%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 37%, Everton de Vina 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.