Cobresal 2-0 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cobresal at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Curico Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 6 as Cobresal welcome Curico Unido to Estadio El Cobre. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 May 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.31 xG and Curico Unido 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.068 / defence 1.234 | Curico Unido attack 0.756 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 0.879 / away 1.079. Curico Unido bring a strong defensive rating of 1.396 — this is suppressing Cobresal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Cobresal games / 5 Curico Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 40% | Draw 36% | Curico Unido 25%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Curico Unido 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 40% | Draw 36% | Curico Unido 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Cobresal 1.31 / Curico Unido 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.068 / def 1.234 | Curico Unido attack 0.756 / def 1.396 | league avg home 0.879 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Curico Unido xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Curico Unido kick off?
Cobresal vs Curico Unido kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Cobresal 2 - 0 Curico Unido.
Where is Cobresal vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Curico Unido part of?
Cobresal vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 40% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 25% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cobresal and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Curico Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobresal and Curico Unido in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.07x the league average against Curico Unido's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Curico Unido's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
40%
2.52
36%
2.81
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.32
1.01
Curico Unido xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.01 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Pre-Season
Curico Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cobresal and Curico Unido runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cobresal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Cobresal's record when hosting Curico Unido specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cobresal
0
Draws
3
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Curico Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, Curico Unido have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2023, when Curico Unido 1-2 Cobresal.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Curico Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Curico Unido 2-0 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.31 xG and Curico Unido 1.01 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Curico Unido landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against Curico Unido attack 0.76 / defence 1.40, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 40% | Draw 36% | Curico Unido 25%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.