Cobresal 2-3 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 May 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 7W 2D 1L at Estadio El Cobre — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cobresal at 1.70 PPG versus Coquimbo Unido's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cobresal register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Coquimbo Unido in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cobresal, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with Cobresal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cobresal trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cobresal 58% and Coquimbo Unido 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 55% | Coquimbo Unido 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.46 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.108 / defence 1.149 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.909 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.404. Data: 42 Cobresal games / 41 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 38%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Coquimbo Unido 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 60% | Coquimbo Unido 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cobresal 1.46 / Coquimbo Unido 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.108 / def 1.149 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.909 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Coquimbo Unido xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Cobresal 2 - 3 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 38% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (4 meetings): Cobresal 2W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.11) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.06
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.93
1.47
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.51
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.47 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 28W 14D 18L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 22W 11D 27L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.63 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (20W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 8W 6D 16L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Cobresal's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.20 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cobresal's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cobresal
1
Draws
6
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 3-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 57%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cobresal) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Coquimbo Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cobresal's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cobresal's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out Cobresal 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Cobresal 2-3 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.46 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.47 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.11 / defence 1.15 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.91 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 38% | Draw 25% | Coquimbo Unido 38%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Coquimbo Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 55%, Coquimbo Unido 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.63 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.