Cobreloa 1-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobreloa vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Union Espanola travel to Estadio Zorros del Desierto to take on Cobreloa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Espanola stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Espanola's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobreloa 1.41 xG and Union Espanola 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobreloa attack 0.945 / defence 1.078 | Union Espanola attack 0.991 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.359. Data: 4 Cobreloa games / 34 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobreloa 37% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 38%. Fair-value odds: Cobreloa 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Union Espanola 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Espanola offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobreloa vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Zorros del Desierto • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobreloa 37% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Cobreloa 1.41 / Union Espanola 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Cobreloa attack 0.945 / def 1.078 | Union Espanola attack 0.991 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cobreloa xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Union Espanola xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobreloa vs Union Espanola kick off?
Cobreloa vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What was the final score in Cobreloa vs Union Espanola?
Cobreloa 1 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Cobreloa vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Zorros del Desierto.
What competition is Cobreloa vs Union Espanola part of?
Cobreloa vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobreloa vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Cobreloa a 37% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobreloa vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cobreloa and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Cobreloa vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Union Espanola?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cobreloa and Union Espanola in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Union Espanola away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cobreloa's attack at 0.94x the league average against Union Espanola's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Cobreloa's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
37%
2.73
25%
4.01
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cobreloa xG
Total xG
2.87
1.45
Union Espanola xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
9%
10.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobreloa vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Cobreloa and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cobreloa and 1.45 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobreloa vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobreloa
Pre-Season
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cobreloa and Union Espanola runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cobreloa
0
Draws
1
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobreloa and Union Espanola?
From 2 meetings on record, Cobreloa have won 1, Union Espanola have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cobreloa and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Union Espanola 3-0 Cobreloa.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobreloa home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Cobreloa defy the odds to beat Union Espanola 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobreloa beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio Zorros del Desierto, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobreloa 1.41 xG and Union Espanola 1.45 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Union Espanola landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobreloa attack 0.94 / defence 1.08 against Union Espanola attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobreloa 37% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 38%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cobreloa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.