A. Italiano 0-0 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates A. Italiano at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this A. Italiano vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antofagasta make the trip to Estadio El Teniente to face A. Italiano in Primera División, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 November 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
A. Italiano (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio El Teniente, A. Italiano have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Antofagasta have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for A. Italiano, 1.40 for Antofagasta — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: A. Italiano 1W, Antofagasta 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with A. Italiano winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
A. Italiano — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — A. Italiano 45% versus Antofagasta 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (A. Italiano 34% | Antofagasta 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects A. Italiano 1.33 xG and Antofagasta 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: A. Italiano attack 0.996 / defence 1.171 | Antofagasta attack 0.648 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.055 / away 1.310. Antofagasta bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing A. Italiano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 A. Italiano games / 29 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: A. Italiano 45% | Draw 28% | Antofagasta 28%. Fair-value odds: A. Italiano 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Antofagasta 3.57. A. Italiano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, A. Italiano are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on A. Italiano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: A. Italiano 40% | Antofagasta 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: A. Italiano vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: A. Italiano 45% | Draw 28% | Antofagasta 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG A. Italiano 1.33 / Antofagasta 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: A. Italiano attack 0.996 / def 1.171 | Antofagasta attack 0.648 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.055 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: A. Italiano (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
A. Italiano xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Antofagasta xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does A. Italiano vs Antofagasta kick off?
A. Italiano vs Antofagasta kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
A. Italiano 0 - 0 Antofagasta.
Where is A. Italiano vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is A. Italiano vs Antofagasta part of?
A. Italiano vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives A. Italiano a 45% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making A. Italiano the favourite.
Will both teams score in A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both A. Italiano and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will A. Italiano vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Antofagasta?
Record (1 meetings): A. Italiano 1W | Draws 0 | Antofagasta 0W.
What form are A. Italiano and Antofagasta in?
A. Italiano (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Antofagasta (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates A. Italiano's attack at 1.00x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.65x) against A. Italiano's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
A. Italiano Win
45%
2.25
28%
3.62
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
A. Italiano xG
Total xG
2.33
0.99
Antofagasta xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are A. Italiano and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for A. Italiano and 0.99 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for A. Italiano vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
A. Italiano's recent record stands at 14W 9D 6L from 29 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Antofagasta, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 9L across 29 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for A. Italiano against 1.45 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, A. Italiano have managed 8W 2D 4L from 14 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antofagasta's away record stands at 3W 7D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, A. Italiano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
A. Italiano are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.14 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antofagasta in 62%.
Defensively: A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
A. Italiano
Current Season
Antofagasta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are A. Italiano and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
A. Italiano have gone 14W 9D 6L in their last 29 games (1.76 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 11W 9D 9L in their last 29 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — A. Italiano at home or Antofagasta away?
A. Italiano's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — A. Italiano at home: 1.86 PPG; Antofagasta away: 1.14 PPG.
Have A. Italiano or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
A. Italiano have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antofagasta won 0-3 on 26 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, A. Italiano have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
A. Italiano
1
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between A. Italiano and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, A. Italiano have won 2, Antofagasta have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did A. Italiano and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2022, when Antofagasta 2-3 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between A. Italiano and Antofagasta?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
A. Italiano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — A. Italiano 36%, Antofagasta 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (A. Italiano) and 29% (Antofagasta).
On the defensive side: A. Italiano keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Antofagasta in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = A. Italiano home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when A. Italiano play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of A. Italiano's recent matches and 57% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is A. Italiano vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of A. Italiano's recent games and 29% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do A. Italiano and Antofagasta tend to score early?
A. Italiano have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at A. Italiano's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 32, as A. Italiano and Antofagasta drew 0-0 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting A. Italiano 1.33 xG and Antofagasta 0.99 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. A. Italiano fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Antofagasta landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of A. Italiano attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against Antofagasta attack 0.65 / defence 1.27, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it A. Italiano 45% | Draw 28% | Antofagasta 28%, with A. Italiano to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (A. Italiano 34%, Antofagasta 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
A. Italiano's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antofagasta's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — A. Italiano 1.76 PPG, Antofagasta 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. A. Italiano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Antofagasta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.