Everton de Vina 3-1 Universidad de Concepcion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Universidad de Concepcion travel to Estadio Sausalito to take on Everton de Vina. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Sausalito this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Sausalito this season.
Universidad de Concepcion — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Concepcion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Universidad de Concepcion's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Primera División this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Everton de Vina are in the better shape of the two on current Primera División data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Everton de Vina have won 1, Universidad de Concepcion 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 3–0 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Everton de Vina trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Universidad de Concepcion trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 50% versus Universidad de Concepcion 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 44% | Universidad de Concepcion 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.87 xG and Universidad de Concepcion 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.924 / defence 1.094 | Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.697 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.346. Universidad de Concepcion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Everton de Vina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Everton de Vina games / 18 Universidad de Concepcion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 57% | Draw 22% | Universidad de Concepcion 20%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Universidad de Concepcion 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Everton de Vina (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Everton de Vina 50% | Universidad de Concepcion 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Sausalito • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton de Vina 57% | Draw 22% | Universidad de Concepcion 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Everton de Vina 1.87 / Universidad de Concepcion 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Everton de Vina attack 0.924 / def 1.094 | Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.697 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Everton de Vina xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Universidad de Concepcion xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion kick off?
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion kicked off at 23:30 on Monday 24 August 2026 at Estadio Sausalito.
What was the final score in Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion?
Everton de Vina 3 - 1 Universidad de Concepcion.
Where is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Sausalito.
What competition is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion part of?
Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion?
Our statistical model gives Everton de Vina a 57% chance of winning, Universidad de Concepcion a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion will score (BTTS).
Will Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion?
Record (1 meetings): Everton de Vina 1W | Draws 0 | Universidad de Concepcion 0W.
What form are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion in?
Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Universidad de Concepcion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Everton de Vina's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Universidad de Concepcion's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Concepcion's attack versus Everton de Vina's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.45
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Everton de Vina xG
Total xG
2.89
1.03
Universidad de Concepcion xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
31.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Everton de Vina and 1.03 for Universidad de Concepcion, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton de Vina's recent record stands at 6W 6D 6L from 18 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Universidad de Concepcion, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 9L across 18 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Universidad de Concepcion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton de Vina on 1.33 PPG, Universidad de Concepcion on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Everton de Vina have managed 2W 4D 3L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Universidad de Concepcion's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton de Vina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton de Vina are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Concepcion are on 0.72 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton de Vina
Blended
Universidad de Concepcion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion in coming into this match?
Everton de Vina have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Universidad de Concepcion have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton de Vina at home or Universidad de Concepcion away?
Everton de Vina's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton de Vina at home: 1.11 PPG; Universidad de Concepcion away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Everton de Vina
0
Draws
0
Universidad de Concepcion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion?
From 2 meetings on record, Everton de Vina have won 2, Universidad de Concepcion have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Universidad de Concepcion.
Who has won more matches between Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Universidad de Concepcion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton de Vina 56%, Universidad de Concepcion 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Everton de Vina) and 56% (Universidad de Concepcion).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Everton de Vina have failed to score in 33% of games; Universidad de Concepcion in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton de Vina home games / Universidad de Concepcion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton de Vina play Universidad de Concepcion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Everton de Vina's games and 56% of Universidad de Concepcion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Everton de Vina's recent games and 56% of Universidad de Concepcion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Everton de Vina and Universidad de Concepcion tend to score early?
Everton de Vina have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Universidad de Concepcion in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Universidad de Concepcion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Universidad de Concepcion 3-1 at Estadio Sausalito, Regular Season - 20, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton de Vina 1.87 xG and Universidad de Concepcion 1.03 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Everton de Vina beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton de Vina attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Universidad de Concepcion attack 0.70 / defence 1.29, drawn from 49/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton de Vina 57% | Draw 22% | Universidad de Concepcion 20%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton de Vina 44%, Universidad de Concepcion 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton de Vina's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Universidad de Concepcion's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton de Vina 1.33 PPG, Universidad de Concepcion 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.