Everton de Vina 3-2 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Everton de Vina face Union Espanola.

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Analysis

Union Espanola make the trip to Estadio Sausalito to face Everton de Vina in Primera División (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 02:00 UK time.

Form

Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Everton de Vina's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Union Espanola have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Union Espanola's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Everton de Vina against 1.50 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Everton de Vina edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Everton de Vina 2–4 Union Espanola — a Union Espanola win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Union Espanola — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton de Vina 62% versus Union Espanola 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton de Vina 50% | Union Espanola 52%). Note also that Union Espanola surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Everton de Vina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton de Vina 1.10 xG and Union Espanola 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton de Vina attack 0.762 / defence 0.876 | Union Espanola attack 0.906 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.204. Everton de Vina's attack rating of 0.762 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Everton de Vina's last 52 games and Union Espanola's last 52.

Result probabilities: Everton de Vina 39% | Draw 30% | Union Espanola 31%. Fair-value odds: Everton de Vina 2.59 | Draw 3.30 | Union Espanola 3.21. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Everton de Vina 50% (last 10 home games) | Union Espanola 60% (last 10 away games).

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