Deportes Copiapo 2-1 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Copiapo at 41%, yet in-form Palestino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Copiapo host Palestino at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Primera División (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 29 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Deportes Copiapo stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Deportes Copiapo at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Deportes Copiapo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Palestino have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palestino's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palestino are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Palestino have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Deportes Copiapo. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 May 2024, ended Deportes Copiapo 1–3 Palestino — a Palestino win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Palestino have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Deportes Copiapo in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palestino in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 51% versus Palestino 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Copiapo 53% | Palestino 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.46 xG and Palestino 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.016 / defence 1.212 | Palestino attack 0.928 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.148. Deportes Copiapo's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Palestino's projected output up. Data: built from Deportes Copiapo's last 55 games and Palestino's last 55.
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 41% | Draw 25% | Palestino 34%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 2.44 | Draw 3.93 | Palestino 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deportes Copiapo at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palestino (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Copiapo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Deportes Copiapo 30% (last 10 home games) | Palestino 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, matchday 26 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 41% | Draw 25% | Palestino 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.46 / Palestino 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 1.016 / def 1.212 | Palestino attack 0.928 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Deportes Copiapo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Palestino xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino FAQs
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Deportes Copiapo 2 - 1 Palestino.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino is a Primera División fixture (matchday 26) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 41% chance of winning, Palestino a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Deportes Copiapo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Palestino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Copiapo's attack rating (1.02) and Palestino's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palestino's attack versus Deportes Copiapo's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Deportes Copiapo's last 55 games and Palestino's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Copiapo Win
41%
2.44
25%
3.93
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.75
1.29
Palestino xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.29 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Deportes Copiapo have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 14W 12D 29L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Palestino's form line: 24W 14D 17L from 55 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Palestino are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Deportes Copiapo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deportes Copiapo have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 27 home games (11W 6D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Deportes Copiapo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palestino have gone 10W 7D 10L from their last 27 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Palestino are on 1.49 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Palestino
Blended
Deportes Copiapo (Home) vs Palestino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Palestino
Blended
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino Form FAQs
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Palestino in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 14W 12D 29L in their last 55 games (0.98 PPG), while Palestino have gone 24W 14D 17L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or Palestino away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.44 PPG; Palestino away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Deportes Copiapo or Palestino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deportes Copiapo have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Palestino in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from February 2023. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent in our data was on 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Deportes Copiapo's record when hosting Palestino specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Copiapo
0
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Palestino?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Palestino have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Palestino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 September 2024: Deportes Copiapo 2-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Copiapo 56%, Palestino 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Deportes Copiapo) and 48% (Palestino).
On the defensive side: Palestino in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Deportes Copiapo vs Palestino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Deportes Copiapo and Palestino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Deportes Copiapo's recent matches and 52% of Palestino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Deportes Copiapo and Palestino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Deportes Copiapo's recent games and 48% of Palestino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Copiapo and Palestino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Deportes Copiapo's recent matches and 70% of Palestino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deportes Copiapo edge out Palestino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Copiapo beat Palestino 2-1 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 26, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.46 xG and Palestino 1.29 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Palestino attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 41% | Draw 25% | Palestino 34%, with Deportes Copiapo to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 53%, Palestino 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Palestino's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palestino arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Deportes Copiapo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.