Coquimbo Unido 0-1 Concepción – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Concepción travel to Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Coquimbo Unido's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 2.32 xG and Concepción 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.276 / defence 0.977 | Concepción attack 0.810 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 0.961. Coquimbo Unido carry an above-average attack strength of 1.276 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Concepción bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Coquimbo Unido's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Coquimbo Unido games / 4 Concepción games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 72% | Draw 17% | Concepción 11%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Concepción 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Coquimbo Unido (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coquimbo Unido as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 72% | Draw 17% | Concepción 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 48% | xG Coquimbo Unido 2.32 / Concepción 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.276 / def 0.977 | Concepción attack 0.810 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.449 / away 0.961 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Concepción xG
48%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción?
Coquimbo Unido 0 - 1 Concepción.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción being played?
The match is being played at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 72% chance of winning, Concepción a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Concepción will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Concepción?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Concepción in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Coquimbo Unido home split: 2.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.28x the league average against Concepción's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Concepción's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 3-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.85
11%
9.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
3.08
0.76
Concepción xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
9.46
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
10%
10.15
Win to Nil
34%
2.96
1%
95.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Concepción expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.76 for Concepción, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Concepción?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
Concepción
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Concepción runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
1
Concepción
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Concepción?
From 2 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 0, Concepción have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Concepción last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Concepción 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Concepción?
Concepción have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Concepción away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Concepción defy the odds to beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concepción beat Coquimbo Unido 0-1 at Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 5, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 2.32 xG and Concepción 0.76 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Coquimbo Unido fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Concepción attack 0.81 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 72% | Draw 17% | Concepción 11%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a Concepción win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.