Coquimbo Unido 2-1 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coquimbo Unido face A. Italiano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A. Italiano travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido in Primera División (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 March 2025 at 23:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Coquimbo Unido have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
A. Italiano — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
A. Italiano's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Coquimbo Unido 1.00 PPG, A. Italiano 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, A. Italiano 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Coquimbo Unido 1–1 A. Italiano — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Coquimbo Unido in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
A. Italiano in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 60% versus A. Italiano 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 52% | A. Italiano 52%). Note also that A. Italiano surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Coquimbo Unido recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.29 xG and A. Italiano 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.891 / defence 0.863 | A. Italiano attack 1.086 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.108. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 35 games and A. Italiano's last 35.
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 40% | Draw 32% | A. Italiano 28%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.50 | Draw 3.10 | A. Italiano 3.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coquimbo Unido are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 40% (last 10 home games) | A. Italiano 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano | Competition: Primera División, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 40% | Draw 32% | A. Italiano 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.29 / A. Italiano 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.891 / def 0.863 | A. Italiano attack 1.086 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.04
A. Italiano xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano FAQs
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 1 A. Italiano.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano is a Primera División fixture (matchday 6) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 40% chance of winning, A. Italiano a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 0.89x the league average against A. Italiano's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, A. Italiano's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coquimbo Unido's last 35 games and A. Italiano's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.10
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.33
1.04
A. Italiano xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.04 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Coquimbo Unido have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 27W 14D 19L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
A. Italiano's form line: 20W 9D 31L from 60 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against A. Italiano.
Venue Form
On home soil, Coquimbo Unido have posted 1.87 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 8D 6L).
On the road, A. Italiano have gone 9W 4D 17L from their last 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; A. Italiano are on 1.20 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
A. Italiano
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido (Home) vs A. Italiano (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
A. Italiano
Current Season
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano Form FAQs
What form are Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while A. Italiano have gone 20W 9D 31L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or A. Italiano away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.87 PPG; A. Italiano away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 May 2026, when Coquimbo Unido won Coquimbo Unido 3-0 A. Italiano.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting A. Italiano specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Coquimbo Unido
3
Draws
1
A. Italiano
Recent Meetings
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, A. Italiano have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: A. Italiano 0-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
A. Italiano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 60%, A. Italiano 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Coquimbo Unido) and 57% (A. Italiano). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coquimbo Unido keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; A. Italiano in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / A. Italiano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs A. Italiano Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 50% of A. Italiano's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 57% of A. Italiano's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and A. Italiano matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 63% of A. Italiano's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coquimbo Unido edge out A. Italiano 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat A. Italiano 2-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.29 xG and A. Italiano 1.04 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against A. Italiano attack 1.09 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 40% | Draw 32% | A. Italiano 28%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 52%, A. Italiano 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
A. Italiano's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.