Cobresal 3-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 5W 0D 5L at Estadio El Cobre — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Coquimbo Unido — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Coquimbo Unido have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Cobresal.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Coquimbo Unido have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Cobresal trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 53% versus Coquimbo Unido 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 57% | Coquimbo Unido 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.80 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.020 / defence 0.956 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.111 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.277. Data: 52 Cobresal games / 51 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 48% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 29%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Coquimbo Unido 3.45. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coquimbo Unido (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 30% | Coquimbo Unido 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 48% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Cobresal 1.80 / Coquimbo Unido 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.020 / def 0.956 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.111 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Coquimbo Unido xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Cobresal 3 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 48% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (9 meetings): Cobresal 2W | Draws 1 | Coquimbo Unido 6W.
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in?
Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.02) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.35
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Cobresal xG
Total xG
3.16
1.36
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
5%
21.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.36 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 19W 8D 24L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 31W 11D 9L from 51 games, 2.04 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Coquimbo Unido are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cobresal.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (14W 3D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 14W 5D 6L from 25 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.53 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Coquimbo Unido in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 19W 8D 24L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 31W 11D 9L in their last 51 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Coquimbo Unido's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.80 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Coquimbo Unido been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Coquimbo Unido in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cobresal's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cobresal
1
Draws
6
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Cobresal 3-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 52%, Coquimbo Unido 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cobresal) and 48% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Cobresal's recent matches and 56% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cobresal's recent games and 48% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Coquimbo Unido 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Coquimbo Unido 3-2 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.80 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.36 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.11 / defence 1.12, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 48% | Draw 23% | Coquimbo Unido 29%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 57%, Coquimbo Unido 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Coquimbo Unido arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Cobresal winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.