Vancouver FC 1-5 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre to face Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 July 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 home games — 1.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cavalry FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cavalry FC are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vancouver FC 53% and Cavalry FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 47% | Cavalry FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 1.25 xG and Cavalry FC 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.390 | Cavalry FC attack 1.041 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.233. Data: 15 Vancouver FC games / 43 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 26% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Cavalry FC 2.04. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 57% | Cavalry FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jul 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 26% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Vancouver FC 1.25 / Cavalry FC 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.988 / def 1.390 | Cavalry FC attack 1.041 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Cavalry FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 23 July 2023 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Vancouver FC 1 - 5 Cavalry FC.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC part of?
Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 26% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vancouver FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cavalry FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.04x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 15/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
26%
3.91
26%
3.89
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.78
Cavalry FC xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
17%
5.96
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
4%
23.31
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.78 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 3W 4D 8L from 15 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 3L across 15 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vancouver FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 2W 2D 3L from 7 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 2W 3D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Vancouver FC are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Cavalry FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 games (0.87 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 6W 6D 3L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.14 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Vancouver FC
5
Draws
4
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 1, Cavalry FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vancouver FC 57%, Cavalry FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Vancouver FC) and 43% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Cavalry FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Vancouver FC's games and 71% of Cavalry FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Vancouver FC's recent games and 43% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vancouver FC and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Vancouver FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 1-5 at Willoughby Community Park at the Langley Events Centre, Regular Season - 8, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 1.25 xG and Cavalry FC 1.78 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.78 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.39 against Cavalry FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 15/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 26% | Draw 26% | Cavalry FC 49%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 47%, Cavalry FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.