Valour 2-4 Cavalry FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valour vs Cavalry FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cavalry FC make the trip to IG Field to face Valour in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Thursday 16 June 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Valour (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Valour's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at IG Field this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cavalry FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cavalry FC away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Cavalry FC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Valour goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valour 43% versus Cavalry FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valour 50% | Cavalry FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valour 0.91 xG and Cavalry FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valour attack 0.758 / defence 0.833 | Cavalry FC attack 1.084 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.138. Valour's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Valour games / 37 Cavalry FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valour 31% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Valour 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Cavalry FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valour 40% | Cavalry FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valour vs Cavalry FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jun 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valour 31% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Valour 0.91 / Cavalry FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Valour attack 0.758 / def 0.833 | Cavalry FC attack 1.084 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Valour xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cavalry FC xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valour vs Cavalry FC kick off?
Valour vs Cavalry FC kicked off at 01:00 on Thursday 16 June 2022 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Valour 2 - 4 Cavalry FC.
Where is Valour vs Cavalry FC being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Valour vs Cavalry FC part of?
Valour vs Cavalry FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our statistical model gives Valour a 31% chance of winning, Cavalry FC a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Valour and Cavalry FC will score (BTTS).
Will Valour vs Cavalry FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in?
Valour (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Cavalry FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valour's attack rating (0.76) and Cavalry FC's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cavalry FC's attack (1.08x) against Valour's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
31%
3.20
31%
3.19
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Valour xG
Total xG
1.94
1.03
Cavalry FC xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Valour and Cavalry FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Valour and 1.03 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Valour vs Cavalry FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valour's recent record stands at 10W 5D 13L from 28 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Cavalry FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 7L across 28 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valour heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Valour have managed 7W 3D 4L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Valour are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cavalry FC's away record stands at 8W 3D 3L across 14 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valour are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cavalry FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Valour have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Cavalry FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valour
Current Season
Cavalry FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valour and Cavalry FC in coming into this match?
Valour have gone 10W 5D 13L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Cavalry FC have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valour at home or Cavalry FC away?
Cavalry FC's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valour at home: 1.71 PPG; Cavalry FC away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Valour or Cavalry FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valour have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Cavalry FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 4-0 on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valour have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cavalry FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valour
2
Draws
6
Cavalry FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valour and Cavalry FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Valour have won 2, Cavalry FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valour and Cavalry FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Cavalry FC 3-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between Valour and Cavalry FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valour 29%, Cavalry FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Valour) and 50% (Cavalry FC).
On the defensive side: Valour keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cavalry FC in 36%; Valour have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valour home games / Cavalry FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valour play Cavalry FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Valour's recent matches and 57% of Cavalry FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valour vs Cavalry FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Valour's recent games and 50% of Cavalry FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valour and Cavalry FC tend to score early?
Valour have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cavalry FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Valour 2-4 at IG Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valour 0.91 xG and Cavalry FC 1.03 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Valour beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cavalry FC outscored their 1.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valour attack 0.76 / defence 0.83 against Cavalry FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valour 31% | Draw 31% | Cavalry FC 37%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valour 50%, Cavalry FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valour's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Cavalry FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.