Supra du Quebec 1-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Canadian Premier League clash, Group Stage as Supra du Quebec welcome Pacific FC to CEPSUM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 June 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Supra du Quebec have won 1, Pacific FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Supra du Quebec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.61 xG and Pacific FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pacific FC attack 0.968 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.268. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Pacific FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 40% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Pacific FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Supra du Quebec are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 40% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.61 / Pacific FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Pacific FC attack 0.968 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Pacific FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 6 June 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC?
Supra du Quebec 1 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 40% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC?
Record (1 meetings): Supra du Quebec 1W | Draws 0 | Pacific FC 0W.
What form are Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Pacific FC away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Supra du Quebec's attack at 0.85x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Supra du Quebec's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.60
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
3.02
1.41
Pacific FC xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
6%
15.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.41 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Pre-Season
Pacific FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Supra du Quebec
1
Draws
0
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 2, Pacific FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-2 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC finished level at 1-1 at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.61 xG and Pacific FC 1.41 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Pacific FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 40% | Draw 28% | Pacific FC 32%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.