Pacific FC 1-2 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 58%, yet in-form Supra du Quebec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacific FC host Supra du Quebec at Starlight Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 August 2026 at 02:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pacific FC — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Starlight Stadium, Pacific FC have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Supra du Quebec stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Supra du Quebec — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Pacific FC have won 0, Supra du Quebec 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Pacific FC trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Supra du Quebec trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pacific FC 77% and Supra du Quebec 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pacific FC 77% | Supra du Quebec 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 2.06 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.990 / defence 1.035 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Pacific FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 58% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 18%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Supra du Quebec 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Pacific FC (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pacific FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Supra du Quebec (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 80% | Supra du Quebec 83% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 58% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Pacific FC 2.06 / Supra du Quebec 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.990 / def 1.035 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Supra du Quebec xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 02:00 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Pacific FC 1 - 2 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 58% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec?
Record (2 meetings): Pacific FC 0W | Draws 1 | Supra du Quebec 1W.
What form are Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (0.99) and Supra du Quebec's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Supra du Quebec's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.17
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.18
1.11
Supra du Quebec xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
2%
42.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.11 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 13 games, going 0W 3D 10L for 0.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Supra du Quebec sit at 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Supra du Quebec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Pacific FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 0W 1D 5L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Supra du Quebec have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Supra du Quebec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.31 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.46 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Supra du Quebec in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Supra du Quebec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 0W 3D 10L in their last 13 games (0.23 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Supra du Quebec away?
Supra du Quebec's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 0.17 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pacific FC's record when hosting Supra du Quebec specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Pacific FC
1
Draws
2
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec?
From 3 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 0, Supra du Quebec have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Pacific FC 1-2 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec?
Supra du Quebec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Supra du Quebec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pacific FC at 67%, Supra du Quebec at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pacific FC and 67% for Supra du Quebec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Supra du Quebec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pacific FC's games and 83% of Supra du Quebec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pacific FC's matches and 67% of Supra du Quebec's.
Do Pacific FC and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Supra du Quebec defy the odds to beat Pacific FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Supra du Quebec beat Pacific FC 1-2 at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 2.06 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.11 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Supra du Quebec outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 58% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 18%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Supra du Quebec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 77%, Supra du Quebec 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Supra du Quebec arrived the stronger side — 1.08 PPG against 0.23. Form held, and they took the win. Supra du Quebec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.